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Are hot-shot, high-powered people. i mean these are not fools. if it comes to you in small pieces, you're likely to miss, so if you're going to be a person of good judgment, you have to do something about this warp in your head where it's so misled by mere contrast. 10. bias from over-influence by authority. well here, the milgrim experiment, as it's called -- i think there have been 1, 600 psychological papers written about milgrim. and he had a person posing as an authority figure trick ordinary people into giving what they had every reason to expect was heavy torture by electric shock to perfectly innocent fellow citizens. and he was trying to show why hitler succeeded and a few other things, and so this really caught the fancy of the world. partly it's so politically correct, and over-influence by authority. you'll like this one: you get a pilot and a co-pilot. the pilot is the authority figure. they don't do this in airplanes, but they've done it in simulators. they have the pilot do something where the co-pilot, who's been trained in simulators a long time -- he knows he's not to allow the plane to crash -- they have the pilot to do something where an idiot co-pilot would know the plane was going to crash, but the pilot's doing it, and the co-pilot is sitting there, and the pilot is the authority figure. 25% of the time the plane crashes. i mean this is a very powerful psychological tendency. it's not quite as powerful as some people think, and i'll get to that later. 11. eleven: bias from deprival super-reaction syndrome, including bias caused by present or threatened scarcity, including threatened removal of something almost possessed, but never possessed. here i took the munger dog, a lovely, harmless dog. the only way to get that dog to bite you is to try and take something out of its mouth after it was already there. and you know, if you've tried to do takeaways in labor negotiations, you'll know that the human version of that dog is there in all of us. and i have a neighbor, a predecessor who had a little island around the house, and his next door neighbor put a little pine tree on it that was about three feet high, and it turned his 180 degree view of the harbor into 179 3 4. well they had a blood feud like the hatfields and mccoys, and it went on and on and on. i mean people are really crazy about minor decrements down. and then, if you act on them, then you get into reciprocation tendency, because you don't just reciprocate affection, you reciprocate animosity, and the whole thing can escalate. and so huge insanities can come from just subconsciously over-weighing the importance of what you're losing or almost getting and not getting. and the extreme business case here was new coke. coca-cola has the most valuable trademark in the world. we're the major shareholder -- i think we understand that trademark. coke has armies of brilliant engineers, lawyers, psychologists, advertising executives and so forth, and they had a trademark on a flavor, and they'd spent the better part of 100 years getting people to believe that trademark had all these intangible values too. and people associate it with a flavor. and so they were going to tell people not that it was improved, because you can't improve a flavor. a flavor is a matter of taste. i mean you may improve a detergent or something, but don't think you're going to make a major change in a flavor. so they got this huge deprival super-reaction syndrome.
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